Amid lawsuits and widespread speculation, TV stands as the stealth factor while ACC leaders and the conference’s school presidents decide how to handle Clemson and Florida State in a way that can placate all parties.
As we’ve discussed on the Reign Supreme Alway podcast, it’s hard to ignore the strong potential that Fox wants into Southern markets in a significant way — and that the network would make that financially worthwhile for the Big Ten.
Why is Fox even relevant, though, when the ACC is under contract with ESPN (where Clemson will kickoff against Florida State on Oct. 5 at either 7 p.m. or 7:30 p.m. ET)?
Because the two schools with the conference’s biggest viewerships want out badly enough that they are paying lawyers to try to make it happen. The legal back-and-forth makes the conference unstable — and creates a shaky future at a time when ESPN has the ability to simply forgo its broadcast rights and walk away.
The potential early end of ESPN’s contract serves as a driving force while ACC officials offer up uneven revenue distribution as a means to settling lawsuits between the conference and two of its biggest brands. A plan that gives high-viewership teams such as Clemson and FSU much higher annual payouts, and gets them significantly closer to the massive amounts earned by Big Ten and SEC teams, can give ESPN the stability it wants in a broadcast property worth $42 million a year. The network needs to be sure its investment stands protected. Because an ACC that lacks Clemson and FSU should the two schools win in court (not to mention any others who might then follow) lacks a significant percentage of relevant viewership that can be sold to broadcasters’ advertising clients.
Virginia Tech, Pitt and N.C. State just can’t carry that load without teams like Clemson and FSU on their schedules. ESPN knows that.
It’s easy to wonder what the thinking is like for presidents and chancellors of schools such as that middle-of-the-road trio, as they face the prospect of casting a vote to accept a smaller piece of the ACC pie.
Let’s lay out some of the possible outcomes if the ACC were to crack apart, driven behind the scenes by Fox licking its chops to try to expand the Big Ten into the South as a truly nationwide superconference.
Fox would want Clemson, FSU and UNC for eyeballs … aka ratings … driven by a mix of generally solid competition (or at least intrigue), loyal fan bases and valuable reach into multiple solid media markets.
It’d want Georgia Tech and Louisville for new-to-B1G geography and occasional upcycles of strong competition.
Then … Maybe Va. Tech? Maybe Pitt? Maybe N.C. State is able to stay connected alongside UNC for a move? Or do those schools end up in the American or MAC making, say, about $35 million less in TV money per year?
So, do schools in that position blink and decide they’re better off accepting a $10 million, $12 million cut (or more) in TV money after all? How confident could Louisville’s thinking be as it sits in the 58th largest media market? Or Va. Tech, more than two hours from 51st-largest Richmond?
If ESPN declines the broadcast option in its ACC contract, all of that moves squarely into consideration. Thus, the conference needs to keep ESPN happy more now than ever before. This significantly motivates the resurfacing talks of uneven revenue distribution.
It’s important to know the numbers behind the points that have been referenced above.
First, here’s a look at the top 10 ACC football programs ranked by their TV ratings, weighted to lessen being skewed by an unusually strong opponent and more accurately reflect their ability to draw viewers week in and week out:
- Clemson
- Florida State
- Miami
- Louisville
- Virginia Tech
- North Carolina
- Stanford
- Pitt
- N.C. State
- Georgia Tech
From 2016-2023, in numbers curated by strategy and analytics consultant Tony Altimore using data from Sports Media Watch, Clemson rode the strength of its last five playoff appearances to draw 142 million viewers, not counting its four strongest opponents. FSU was the only other ACC team to draw more than 100 million viewers by that standard. Miami topped the 70 million mark, while the rest ranged from 47 million for Louisville to 25 million for Georgia Tech – effectively 1/3 of Clemson’s total or substantially less.
With that in mind, here’s a look at the biggest media markets, meaning populations of at least 1 million, in the home states of those 10 top-drawing ACC universities who don’t have a Big Ten university in their state:
- Atlanta (7th-largest nationally)
- Miami (11th)
- Tampa (16th)
- Charlotte (20th)
- Orlando (30th)
- Raleigh-Durham (35th)
- Jacksonville (44th)
- Greensboro (47th)
- West Palm Beach (48th)
- Fort Myers-Naples (54th)
- Greenville-Spartanburg (57th)
- Louisville (58th)
Clearly, Florida State’s media presence carries importance, even in a down season. Make no mistake, the size of its alumni base means FSU can carry South Florida markets on its own. As for Clemson, try driving around Atlanta or North Carolina for a day without seeing an orange paw tilted to 1 o’clock. Greenville can’t keep all of Clemson’s grads employed where the Blue Ridge yawns its greatness, so the alumni base spreads out.
A conference moving into Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and South Carolina for the first time would gain a foothold in 11 markets of 1 million or more viewers age 12 and up – with five of them above 2 million.
Also consider UCLA’s string of five straight losing seasons from 2016-2020 and realize that teams’ current stretches of success or failure on the field really isn’t much of a factor for either the Big Ten or SEC as their TV partners look to grow the conferences. Further, consider that schools such as Northwestern and Vanderbilt haven’t been given the boot yet.
So a couple of “whys” become readily apparent — why Clemson, FSU and UNC top the widely reported wish lists of the Big Ten or the SEC; and why Georgia Tech, Virginia Tech and Louisville can earn best-of-the-rest billing, especially for Fox and therefore the Big Ten.
A national live broadcast property is a strikingly valuable thing, as evidenced by the NBA’s recent TV deal, which on a yearly basis will be worth nearly 7 times what the Big Ten and SEC are making.
-- See our past discussion of TV networks’ role in potential ACC realignment (blog continues below):
Months before the NBA deal emerged, Bill and Daniel discussed the importance of Fox lacking Southern markets on its air and how that could turn into a rivalry battle with ESPN for top ACC schools’ athletic programs — as well as why broadcast markets will still matter to networks for a while longer.
Maybe a broken ACC without its top draws could still manage to bring in more annual revenue than the AAC’s reported $8 million to $9 million per team — a payout cited during SMU’s move to the ACC, and a figure so small that Mustangs boosters volunteered to cover it so the program could ascend into the Power 4 conferences. But keep in mind, the ACC deal with ESPN is driven by factors that vary from year to year, including ACC Network revenue.
As for ESPN, the network’s decision over its future with the ACC surely is impacted to some degree by wanting to keep Fox away from its markets. But it likely is more focused on regaining certainty from the conference’s most-viewed members before coughing up the third-highest price in college sports to keep the ACC on its air. If the ESPN deal vanishes, the ACC quickly splinters much like the Pac-12 did.
That takes us back to the potential outcomes of a vote among the 18 ACC presidents and chancellors (yes, Notre Dame gets a vote somehow) regarding uneven payouts in the conference.
Several school leaders who have been making truckloads of money on the shoulders of ratings prowess from Clemson, FSU, Miami and others? They surely don’t like giving away, say, $12 million to their lead dogs. But they now must come to the realization that dropping down to a hypothetical $30 million annually from the ACC beats settling for $10 million or less from the American – or even just a fraction of that from the MAC or Sun Belt.
Some have said for months now to just let Clemson and FSU walk, and good luck finding a spot because the Big Ten and SEC have said they aren’t looking to add anybody else. That’s a short-sighted stance. What else would those conferences publicly say right now? They don’t want to harm the stature of their current product or potentially draw a tampering lawsuit. Their tunes will very likely change should the most-viewed ACC schools become available.
That’s the picture that drives realignment right now. If the people in charge at ACC schools with low viewerships will not let their egos give way to the needs of the TV partners who market their product, their programs’ revenue will plummet and their student athletes’ livelihoods will be greatly altered — not to mention those execs’ own salaries will be at significant risk.
Hard to say how this will go.
Like it or not, FSU’s overall stature isn’t harmed by its 1-3 start and Clemson’s long-term attractiveness isn’t undone by its disastrous second half against Georgia. The future of the ACC hinges on the money they generate, and the avenues to bringing it in.
Sources: